A storm heading into the Southwest Friday could dump up to 18 inches of snow in the southern San Juan Mountains and up to 3 inches in Cortez.
Northeast Arizona and Northwest New Mexico should see the bulk of the storm.
A winter storm warning is in effect from 11 p.m. Thursday to 5 a.m. Saturday for the southwest San Juans. Durango, Cortez and Pagosa Springs lie in its path.
“The bulk of the storm for Southwest Colorado is expected to be between 6 a.m. Friday and 6 p.m.,” said Erin Walter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction. “In the afternoon on Friday, you could see an inch an hour falling in the higher elevations of the southern San Juans. The storm is expected to favor the southern San Juans, and it doesn’t appear the northern San Juans will get much out of this.”
In lower elevations, Durango could get from 3 to 6 inches, Cortez could see 1 to 3 inches, and Pagosa Springs could see 7 to 9 inches, Walter said.
A winter weather advisory is in effect for Pagosa Springs, Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio from 11 p.m. Thursday until 11 p.m. Friday. The advisory expects from 3 to 6 inches in Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio and 7 to 9 inches in Pagosa Springs and the foothills of Durango, Bayfield and Ignacio.
Walter said Durango and Pagosa Springs have a good chance of getting snow, and Cortez could receive rain unless the temperature drops.
“We didn’t get as much snow out of the last storm as we expected in Cortez,” Walter said. “It was just too warm, and the ground was too warm, but that storm cooled the ground, and this storm is going to have some cold associated with it, so you might see accumulations in Cortez this time around.”
In higher elevations, Walter said Silverton could see 5 to 10 inches; Wolf Creek Pass, more than 15 inches; and Lizard Head Pass, 8 to 10 inches.
“In the higher elevations, we’re expecting 7 to 14 inches, with up to 18 inches in favored higher elevations,” she said.
Southwest Colorado could get hit from the back end of the trough Saturday, and that will have cold temperatures coming with it, so snow could linger in Southwest Colorado on Saturday, Walter said.
The next chance of snow in Southwest Colorado will be Monday, according to the five-day forecast from the weather service.
Wolf Creek Ski Area reported 15 inches of snow in the past 24 hours and a base depth of 73 inches.
Purgatory Resort reported 7 inches of snow in the past 24 hours and a base depth of 49 inches.
Telluride Ski Area reported 1 inch of snow in the past 24 hours and a base depth of 33 inches.
parmijo@durangoherald.com