Amid the federal government’s reform of coal-leasing nationwide, new environmental regulations and coalmine cutbacks and layoffs, a new report from the Energy Information Administration suggests things are likely to get even grimmer for coal mining in Western states.

The report, published in July, states that contraction of the coal mining industry is likely to continue. Across the West, coal production is projected to decline by about 26 percent, or 230 million tons of coal, between 2015 and 2040. Those declines are already underway: A wave of coal mining layoffs have hit Colorado’s Western Slope, and Wyoming’s Powder River mines as more coal companies have cut back production.

The administration’s report found that while regulations under the Clean Power Plan led to sharper declines in the industry, coal jobs would plummet even without federal constraints. Without the Clean Power Plan, which was implemented in February 2016 and is currently stayed by the Supreme Court, national coal production would remain close to 2015 levels, already the industry’s 40-year low, through 2040. While the EIA’s report shows that federal regulations have played a part in industry decline, historically cheap natural gas has outcompeted coal, making it harder for coal companies to stay in business.

Many coal-mining communities in the region, like Paonia, Colorado, where High Country News is based, formed around and depended almost entirely on coal economies. Here, the urgent need to fill economic gaps and adopt practical transition plans has not yet been met. “If you are a resource-dependent economy, you are much more vulnerable to forces you don’t control,” says Luke Danielson, an attorney for the Sustainable Development Strategies Group. “The West will continue to be a region where natural resources are extremely important, but we need to respond to community impacts and help them make the transition away from coal.”

According to HCN data compiled from local media and energy industry reports, more than 2,600 coal-mining jobs have disappeared since 2012 across the West.