DENVER - 'Tis the season of ringing bells, but the one ringing at the state Capitol on Friday sounded more like a dinner bell.

Legislators heard their quarterly economic forecast, and it crystallized a story that has been coming into focus all year: Colorado is recovering, and relatively good times have returned for lawmakers writing the state budget.

Last year's conservative budget left the state with a half-billion-dollar surplus.

But by 2015, legislators probably will have to deal with something they haven't seen since the 1990s: the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights requires tax refunds when spending grows enough.

Add it up, and it means 2014 will be the year of "maximum flexibility" for the state budget, said Natalie Mullis, the Legislature's chief economist.

So for legislators and lobbyists who have waited years to get their programs funded, if there were a time to go shopping, it's now. But act fast; these door-buster specials won't last long.

The legislative session begins Jan. 8, and the big but fleeting surplus of cash is shaping up to be a major theme. The Legislature's budget experts are already making pleas for restraint.

Another recession could arrive in just a few years, said Rep. Cheri Gerou, R-Evergreen.

"I think we have a limited amount of time to fix what has been broken in the infrastructure of our state," said Gerou. "Just because things are going better doesn't mean we don't have to be very, very careful about our spending."

Economists for the Legislature and Gov. John Hickenlooper deliver their forecasts every three months, and they have grown more confident all year about predicting a slow recovery.

Colorado has ranked No. 4 nationally in job growth since the Great Recession, said Jason Schrock, chief economist for the governor's office. His forecast changed very little since September.

"I think that shows the economy is becoming more boring. I think becoming more boring is a good thing. We all know what it's like to live in interesting times," Schrock said.

The Legislature's economics staff noted one big, positive change since September. The budget deal Congress passed last week should remove the risk of Washington drama crashing the economy.

Another government shutdown or flirtation with debt default probably won't happen, according to the forecast.

joeh@cortezjournal.com