As of Wednesday, snowpack levels for 2016 in the Dolores River Basin are 150 percent of median for snow-water equivalent.
The total 2015 precipitation data for Cortez was 145 percent of normal, or 18.20 inches.
Cortez gauges recorded above-normal precipitation for the fall and winter, coming in at 142 percent for October, 148 percent for November, 186 percent for December and 169 percent for January 2016.
The impressive levels are a drought buster, although officials caution that drought recovery in soils, rivers and reservoirs can take years to recover.
Going into 2015, the U.S. Drought Monitor recorded Southwest Colorado entering its 15th year of moderate to severe drought. As of January 26, the data shows no current drought conditions for the state, except a small section in the northwest corner.
When measuring just snowfall, the Dolores Basin is looking well also.
Snotel sites that record snow accumulation at Black Mesa, El Diente Peak, Lizard Head Pass, Lone Cone, Scotch Creek and Sharkstooth are all above-normal for January 2016, overall coming in at 137 percent of normal.
The Snotel at El Diente Peak is showing the highest level, at 146 percent of the median snowfall for January.
The combined snowpack snow-water equivalent for the San Miguel, Dolores, and San Juan basins is 123 percent of the median.
What can we expect?
Forecasters with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction are expecting a dry spell in the coming weeks for Southwest Colorado.
National Weather Service meteorologist Ellen Heffernan said a high-pressure ridge in the West will keep storms away from the Four Corners region into mid-February.
“We’re going into a dry spell with a better chance for above-normal temperatures,” Heffernan said.
However, the forecast for March, April and May leans toward a better chance for above-normal precipitation, she said.
The El Niño weather phenomenon, created by the warming of the Equatorial Pacific, gives the Southwest a better chance for storms.
While individual storms can’t be definitively linked to the El Niño, the pattern of wet weather is consistent with historic El Niño data.
However, it’s fizzling.
“We have been in a strong El Niño, but it has weakened just a little bit since late 2015,” Heffernan said. “It is expected to gradually weaken into spring then transition to neutral in early summer.”
Avalanche danger increases
After picking up nearly 2 to 4 feet of new snow the past week, the avalanche danger is high for all elevations below and above tree line in the southern San Juan Mountains.
According to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, “numerous large natural avalanches have occurred, and human-triggered avalanches continue to be very likely on steep slopes.”
On its website, the agency recommends avoiding backcountry travel until the danger subsides.
Large snowfall in a short time span can push snowpack to a breaking point. The avalanche center reports that on slopes 30 degrees or steeper, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is high.
“No need to beat around the bush,” Jeff Davis posted early Tuesday morning. “Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the San Juan Mountains. This storm has already brought a lot of snow and strong winds to the forecast area and is expected to continue into Wednesday.”
The center’s avalanche forecaster, Mark Gober, said crews began Tuesday mitigating areas north of Silverton toward Red Mountain Pass, which has been closed since Sunday evening.
On Monday, crews worked on Molas and Coal Bank passes, yielding 24 avalanches off of 37 deployed explosive rounds, Gober said.
The National Weather Service is reporting no new significant accumulations for the rest of the week. But, temperatures are expected to dip below freezing, with wind chills as low as minus-15 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
To learn more about avalanche safety and warnings, visit www.avalanche.state.co.us.
The Durango Herald contributed to this story.
