All around Durango, the sight of hikers in short sleeves, nighttime bike riders and spring-like days in March point to one baffling question: Have we seen the end of El Niño?
“That’s a heck of a good question,” said Colorado State University climatologist Nolan Doesken. “And of course – El Niño season – what does that even mean?”
The month of March has been defined by its exceptionally beautiful, sunny days that have awakened most Durangoans from their wintertime hibernation, perhaps a little bit too early.
Most Southwest Coloradans were hopeful that after a snowy start to the season, the winter would bring more powder days at Purgatory Resort and the promise of heavy spring-runoff.
It has not.
The last major snowstorm in the region was the first week of February, and since, the Four Corners has been relatively dry, with storms just missing the area. So far this month, there has been only 0.13 of an inch of precipitation. The historic monthly average for March is 1.24 inches.
El Niño is a periodic climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with worldwide impacts on weather patterns, which usually transitions into its counterpart, La Niña, in the spring.
This year, forecasters predicted one of the strongest El Niño seasons on record, with a wetter-than-average winter for areas in the Four Corners.
But that hasn’t happened, and as a result, snowpack numbers are below annual averages.
The current “snow water equivalent” at Cascade is 7.9 inches; the average is 13 inches. At Molas Lake, it’s 14.6 inches; the average is 17.6 inches. And Red Mountain Pass is at 13.7 inches; the average is 20 inches.
“I think most people in Southwest Colorado had an expectation that there would be numerous heavy storms over the course of winter because of what people think they know about El Niño,” Doesken said.
“El Niño and big dumps. That seems to be what people associate. In reality, El Niño doesn’t follow a predictable script. Ever year, El Niño writes its own script.”
Which begs the question, is that it?
Julie Malingowski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service based in Grand Junction, said for the month of March, yes, that’s about it in terms of precipitation.
“We are seeing a very dry period right now,” she said. “In a normal El Niño year, we expect March to get wet again. This is not what we were expecting with a dry March. We haven’t seen that signal change in the last few weeks, nor do we expect it to change in the next 10 days.”
However, in a glimmer of hope, Malingowski said the one- and three-month outlook shows the chance for above-average precipitation – about the same forecast as last year, which saw heavy rains in May.
“This was true last year as well,” said Doesken. “The long-range seasonal forecast, which is somewhat driven by relationship of weather patterns to El Niño, is still calling for an enhanced chance of a wet spring, even if March ends up being very dry.”
All in all, El Niño wasn’t a complete bust.
In California, a state suffering from extreme drought, snowpack in the northern regions has reached average to above-average levels for the first time in years.
“The larger reservoirs are in pretty good shape right now,” said Karl Swanberg, a Weather Service forecaster in Sacramento. “We’re still slightly below normal, but we’ve done some catching up. March has been quite wet, and more is on the way for at least northern California.”
And Southwest Colorado can’t complain too much, said Doesken. Because of the strong start to winter, Purgatory has a greater base of snow – 112 inches – than it had last year.
“The snow is still holding up great,” said spokeswoman Kim Oyler. “We still have great spring skiing conditions.”
Oyler said the last day of operations at Purgatory is April 3, and, weather permitting, officials may decide to extend into weekend-only operations.
Even James Ranch’s Jennifer Wheeling agreed early snowfall has improved ground moisture conditions, though she’s hoping for a wet spring.
“I’m happy with the ground moisture we did get,” Wheeling said. “Of course, we’d like to see it stick around a little longer.”
Still, Wheeling doesn’t plan to get too ahead of herself in terms of planting. She’s been growing vegetables in the Animas Valley for 18 years, and, by now, she knows the region’s temperamental weather.
“I just know that we are getting this nice warm time here in March, but our frost date is still June 15,” she said. “We’ll pretty much follow our normal deal and not get too far ahead of ourselves. Because if you do, in our world, you don’t get a second chance.”
jromeo@durangoherald.com
