Colorado Republicans have a plan to become players in the 2012 presidential nomination game.
They wouldnt be big players. They would be just slightly bigger players than before. Its not a bold plan theyre pursuing, which is good. In fact, its the lack of boldness in the plan that makes it a likely winner.
Heres how it would work.
Colorado, which used to have its caucus night on the so-called Super Tuesday in March, was in a dead zone. We received no candidate attention. We received no media attention. We were just a small hill to employ a locally understood metaphor in a big mountain range. Thats very unlike Colorados current swing-state importance in the general election, when we enjoy if thats the right word TV campaign-ad bonanza status.
Under the new plan, which Colorado GOP Chairman Ryan Call says is not opposed by national Republicans, Colorado would move its caucus night to Feb. 7 one night after Iowas first-in-the-nation caucus and just ahead of New Hampshires also-first primary.
The Colorado Republican Central Committee voted last week in Colorado Springs, and the outcome was pretty much assured.
The reason national Republicans wont object, Call says, is because the Colorado caucus is non-binding, meaning state Republicans wont pick delegates to the national convention that night. They wont pick them until a state convention in April.
The non-binding caucus loophole, as it may become known, is also being played by Minnesota and Maine and possibly Missouri. Minnesota and Maine have already made clear they want to move up to Feb. 7.
For a good while, we have worried that, with so many states clamoring to move up in the primary-season calendar, the race will become too compressed, nominees will be chosen too quickly, and the national presidential race will be at risk of becoming too drawn out.
We dont think this plan will do much, though, to change the political landscape. Iowa and New Hampshire will still be the dominant players. South Carolina and Nevada will still play their roles. But the path is still not clear. Michigan and Florida, which shook up the primary calendar in 2008 and were sanctioned for it, may try to shake it up again. That year, Iowa and New Hampshire voted in early January.
In any case, we doubt that candidates will spend much time in Colorado with the Iowa caucus just the day before. But, as was pointed out on the Frontloading HQ blog (frontloading.blogspot.com), that could be good news for Mitt Romney.
At this stage, Romney is not expected to win in Iowa. In 2008, though, he did win caucuses in, yes, Colorado, Maine and Minnesota. The Republican establishment in Colorado is largely in the Romney camp, and the move could provide Romney a small bump one day after Iowa.
For our purposes, though, the question is whether a move would give Colorado more impact in the nomination process without also having an undue impact on the nominating calendar. We think that it would.
